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Scenarios create a language and roadmap for tracking external market change and shifting planning assumptions over time. In many cases, clients benefit from more-informed conversations months and even years after the scenario-planning process, thanks to the focus the scenario-planning framework puts on future-relevant events, trends, and competitive activity that they might otherwise have missed or ignored. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1574461055057-P4JH2FIC5VN9SJYLLOOM/scnarios.jpg ROI - What are scenarios? - A set of hypotheses to help organizations understand multiple possible future business environments - Holistic, examining how the entire system the organization is part of might change based on various trends - Imaginative, but plausible—based on trends organizations can recognize but may not fully grasp the potential implications of or be giving enough attention to - Based not on existing institutional assumptions, but rather on broader social, technological, economic, environmental, and political trends https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1573841290493-NZSR0N3H3I20JUIMTO1F/danijel-durkovic-7p8R4CZjoQE-unsplash.jpg ROI - The Groundwork for change By enabling decision makers to explicitly acknowledge, and then rehearse responses to, a range of possible futures, scenario planning lays the groundwork for responding to change. Instead of creating painstakingly detailed roadmaps to a future that may never arrive, leadership can spend more time scouting shifting terrain and steering the organization in the direction it figures to be the most promising way forward. https://www.mattranen.com/how-it-works daily 0.75 2019-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575664413589-D3KIXATFJU9HJ3VIDYED/daria-nepriakhina-zoCDWPuiRuA-unsplash.jpg How It Works https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575664430990-593FUMJUH2Y875TFGDEW/daria-nepriakhina-zoCDWPuiRuA-unsplash.jpg How It Works https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1573851340581-FU8JMCEMCPNQ259GSM6I/startae-team-7tXA8xwe4W4-unsplash.jpg How It Works - developing good scenarios Part art and part science, scenario development is highly creative and collaborative, but designed to make sure there is a clear set of assumptions and logic to each story told. Good scenarios challenge conventional wisdom and are divergent—in that each suggests a different strategic context—but at the same time, are plausible and address the specific business issues and time horizon identified in the first step of the process. Visually and emotionally compelling communications of your scenarios will help drive greater understanding and responsiveness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575567855930-LFV0XOSW85DISPR56FK4/Process%2Bimage.jpg How It Works https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1573851209881-K3ES63YDX7ISZ4ODESZP/thomas-drouault-IBUcu_9vXJc-unsplash.jpg How It Works Identifying the minimum level of process your organization needs to make the work stick is an important part of doing scenario development right, and generating real returns on the investment. Consulting with an experienced scenario planner can help determine the right tradeoffs to make for your particular project. https://www.mattranen.com/the-big-picture daily 0.75 2019-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1574465327188-CQV362CQ3PA2SG7NTEWZ/map.jpg The Big Picture https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575664332300-12R7R51CHOS2X3SDQIW2/jean-frederic-fortier-RkBTPqPEGDo-unsplash.jpg The Big Picture https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575655698693-B34E7O67HZ3CH8YWR8OZ/trent-haaland-ApIqCKHmZ30-unsplash.jpg The Big Picture Consider the taxi industry. For years, it viewed Lyft and Uber as traditional competitors—as just another couple of cab companies, albeit with cool mobile apps. The conventional wisdom was that competing necessitated owning and maintaining fleets of cars and having good relationships with regulators. Meanwhile, what was actually happening was complete industry disruption. By embracing innovative business models, as well as aggressively leveraging scalable technology and building strong consumer brands—neither of which is a strength of traditional cab companies—Uber and Lyft have changed what success in the industry looks like. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575697576923-8EI3YXJ4SOSGNAP8XBK4/iStock-157607924.jpg The Big Picture - Navigating uncertainty with a portfolio approach to strategy Asset management is a good analog for this approach to thinking about strategy: as a portfolio of bets placed against the future, combined with a process for continually updating the portfolio as new information is obtained or new opportunities emerge. While investment may be weighted heavily towards a particular part of the portfolio—the strategy built for the current most probable future for your business—smaller hedges in other directions (e.g., entering joint ventures or strategic alliances, acquiring new capabilities, experimenting in new markets or with new models, etc.) provide a strategic footprint for evolving the business over time or, if need be, pivoting more dramatically on a shorter timeline. https://www.mattranen.com/secrets-to-success daily 0.75 2019-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575663674325-Q8OOA5JULVGFQD28T4OX/meeting.jpg Secrets to Success https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575664155723-X3DIZX3UAT3O99FLJ0K9/you-x-ventures-Oalh2MojUuk-unsplash.jpg Secrets to Success https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575664453611-P435KYT8N3K70042MNZP/you-x-ventures-Oalh2MojUuk-unsplash.jpg Secrets to Success https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575662616263-7BQBDB5H5UB8M2TSY1O3/hana-kim-slRc0JDsMdk-unsplash.jpg Secrets to Success - Picking the right lens To launch a recent engagement with a real estate company, we needed to determine whether residential or commercial markets were to be the primary focus for the scenarios. Even though we’d also learn something about the other segment, focusing on a single segment would allow us to go deeper in our work. It would also help us prioritize forces of change that merited more in-depth study. For example, topics around “the future of work” would impact both segments, but clearly that impact would be greater on the commercial property segment. This approach allowed us to achieve the right balance between the range of business issues we would cover and the level of detail we could get to in decision making. And, of course, we could always cover the other segment later. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575662714774-3S5904AGYDXMYZ4UJVWP/fre-sonneveld-q6n8nIrDQHE-unsplash.jpg Secrets to Success - global or regional? A client in Asia initially thought it wanted scenarios about global energy markets. 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Part 1: The big picture: Redefining strategy in disruptive times https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575667391967-DSC1I5G2FLVDUCFVW7KN/artem-verbo-zHg5TXgVoGQ-unsplash.jpg Scenario Planning 101 - Part 2: ROI: How scenario planning future-proofs your strategy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575667505338-EQPP0G4M7GJA7A2LA5OO/daria-nepriakhina-zoCDWPuiRuA-unsplash.jpg Scenario Planning 101 - Part 3: How it works: The five step scenario planning process https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5338475ee4b0155af0a2b5b5/1575667529393-H6DEE3HKBNNBAUGPHI4J/you-x-ventures-Oalh2MojUuk-unsplash.jpg Scenario Planning 101 - Part 4: Secrets to success: Four essential scenario planning tips https://www.mattranen.com/blog-1 daily 0.75 2020-07-10